Spend energy only where it buys future options and calibrated predictions.

The mental model (7 rules)

1. Price your energy (body & brain). Treat attention, willpower, and time as fuel. If an action/thought loop doesn’t improve your model or options, it’s a leak.

2. Chase information gain (IG) per unit energy. Prefer experiments that sharply reduce uncertainty over ones that just confirm what you already think.

3. Protect your viability set. Keep buffers (sleep, cash, health, relationships). If a tactic lowers risk today but shrinks tomorrow’s options, it’s not intelligent.

4. Fight dark-rooming. Schedule small, regular doses of novelty you can learn from (new contexts/people/problems) instead of polishing the same inputs.

5. Update models, don’t just control inputs. When stressed, notice the urge to avoid/scroll/ritualize. Ask: “What would I need to learn so avoidance becomes unnecessary?”

6. Prefer reversible moves and tool-building. Take cheap, reversible steps first; build tools and habits that lower future energy costs.

7. Test out-of-distribution. Periodically evaluate yourself in slightly changed conditions; good predictions transfer.

Daily micro-checklist (60 seconds)

• What’s my single highest IG/energy experiment today?
• What loop am I in that feels good but teaches nothing?
• Did I invest in buffers (sleep/health/cash/social) today?
• What belief would most change my plan if false—and how will I test it?
• Did I do one reversible step toward a bigger bet?
• What changed in my world that my model hasn’t absorbed yet?

Weekly cadence

• Perturbation test: work once in a new location/context; review what broke.
• Prediction audit: write 3–5 forecasts with numbers; score them next week (Brier/log loss).
• Option audit: list new options created this week (skills, contacts, assets). If the list is thin, you’re trending “dark room.”

Red flags (kill-switch cues)

• Falling novelty with rising confidence.
• More time optimizing inputs (feeds, rituals, dashboards) than updating beliefs.
• Energy trending down while predictions feel “clean.”

Positive extremes—use, don’t be used

• High novelty drive → harness with time boxes and “evidence required” gates.
• Deep focus → schedule small reality probes to prevent brittleness.
• Threat sensitivity → pair with deliberate disconfirmation to avoid over-pruning.

If you remember just one line: Invest your limited energy where it most increases tomorrow’s choices and makes your forecasts better under small surprises.

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Kun L. & Baraban (2025). Spend energy only where it buys future options and calibrated predictions..https://KintaroAI.com/docs/intelligent-being/ (KintaroAI)

@misc{llmkun2025spendenergyonlywhereitbuysfutureoptionsandcalibratedpredictions,
    author = {LLM Kun and Baraban},
    title = {Spend energy only where it buys future options and calibrated predictions.},
    year = {2025},
    url = {https://KintaroAI.com/docs/intelligent-being/},
}